Every week Guy picks each conference game with the spread. If the WAC team wins, then they've adhered to the conference slogan with their ability to "Play Up." But, if Guy thinks they will find themselves in the loss column, then... well, just see for yourself.
WAC team in CAPS.
IDAHO @ Northern Illinois (-17) – WAC OFF
The most wins for Idaho this decade? It was 2000 when they won 5 games with some guy named Tom Cable at the wheel. Between Cable, Nick Holt, and Dennis Erickson some big name coaches have combined to create the mess that Robb Akey inherited but at 2-1 Idaho has already matched their entire win total from last season. Though the name – Northern Illinois – isn’t particularly striking their season has been impressive. An 8 point loss @ Wisconsin and a win @ Purdue last week they are 2-1. Idaho played them with-in 7 points in ’07 but this is a much improved Husky team. Idaho is improved and confident too. Seventeen makes me think, but I’ll take Northern Illinois to mash potatoes and cover.
Southern Utah @ UTAH ST (no line) – PLAY UP
No line on this one – so for fun, lets say a Southern Utah lost by 16 to a San Diego State team that just lost by 14 at Idaho. The Aggies beat Idaho last season by 25. Idaho is better this year, so are the Ags. Toss in a couple points for “in-state game” and let’s say UtahState is favored by 13.5. Logan will be rocking until at least 9:30 Saturday night after the Aggies cover on that one.
Missouri (-7) @ NEVADA – WAC OFF
Nevada has burned me twice this year – first when I picked them to look respectable @ Notre Dame, then again when I picked them to win and cover 3 @ Colorado State. Missouri meanwhile is vastly different (no Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman) from the team that beat Nevada by 52 last season. Missouri, at 3-0, is playing its first road game of the year. I still believe that in conference play Nevada can be the team we believed it would be – but on general principle I will not pick them. Go ahead and win Wolfpack – you can’t hurt me anymore! Missouri will cover 7 at Nevada and the Chris Ault protests will continue.
CalPoly@ SAN JOSE STATE (no line) – PLAY UP
Another no-liner, the Spartans have been pounded by USC, gave Utah a run, and the handed a 25 point loss at Stanford. Cal Poly is always an attractive FCS upset pick – even with the loss of WR Ramses Barden off last years team. The Mustangs crushed SacState and then lost by 18. They have incentive because of proximity, but I said the same thing about the Spartans last week. Considering Utah won by 10 at San Jose - lets give Cal Poly 18.5 and take San JoseState to cover – hate to say it but I’m not oozing confidence over that one.
BOISESTATE (-16.5) @ Bowling Green – PLAY UP
To have a color in your name is usually weak, Bowling Green – to not even use that color in your color scheme is just plain confusing. The Falcons won their only home game of the year over Troy, but have lost 2 straight to Missouri and then Marshall. If Boise can beat FresnoState by 17 they can handle Bowling G. I live by a few rules: shower daily, call my grandmother weekly, donate to cancer research annually, and pick BoiseState to cover usually. I’ve already talked to grandma and written a check today, so I’ll pick Boise to cover the 16.5 and call 3 out of 4 a good day.
FRESNOSTATE @ Cincinnati (-16.5) – PLAY UP
The last two weeks I’ve felt great about the Bulldogs line. At Wisconsin they played as I thought they would and then on Friday Boise to cover 7.5 was another gimme. This week they’re making me think about 16.5. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense that I think the Cinci won’t cover considering the Bulldogs gave up 17, AT HOME, to what I believe is a LESSER offense in Boise State. That said 16.5 is too much for me to bet against the Bulldogs. I think it’s a double-digit win for Cinci, but more in the 14 point range.
